Despite what appears to be a healthy demand for multi-million-dollar homes, the real estate market on Cape Cod continued to slide in November, according to sales statistics released yesterday by the Barnstable County Registry of Deeds.

According to the registry data, which includes all sales valued over $50,000, the number of properties sold on the Cape fell by 18.9 percent in November compared with the same month last year. A total of 493 residential and commercial properties were sold last month compared with 608 in November 2005.

For the previous four months, however, the number of sales plunged between 26 percent and 34 percent in year-to-year comparisons.

In November, the median sale price also dropped compared with the same month in 2005, falling 3.8 percent to $355,000.

The median sale price may have been propped up to some extent by a number of luxury home sales, said John Meade, register of deeds for Barnstable County.

Although the total number of properties sold for the month dropped nearly 19 percent compared with November 2005, the number of sales valued over $1 million stayed nearly the same, at about 50, he said.

Realtors and some policy experts have predicted the state is nearing the bottom of the current real estate slump, and that relatively low interest rates and a growing economy will turn the market around by spring.

''A lot of the economic prognosticators are giving us optimistic signs that we could be reaching close to the end of the shaky period,'' said Annie Blatz, president-elect of the Cape Cod & Islands Association of Realtors and a branch executive for Kinlin Grover.

The Cape's cachet may help the area rebound more quickly than the rest of the state, Blatz said. While there has been an overabundance of properties on the market over the past year, the number is starting to decrease, indicating there are more buyers, she said.

''People want to buy on Cape Cod. They will buck the economic tendencies to purchase property here,'' Blatz said. ''If people wait till spring, they may be disappointed.''

However, a forecast by the New England Economic Partnership last month indicated that the state's real estate slowdown is only half over and may continue into 2008.

While jobs are being added and interest rates are relatively low, home prices simply aren't low enough yet to spur more demand, said the report's preparer, Alan Clayton-Matthews, a professor at the UMass-Boston McCormack Graduate School.

Based on previous boom-and-bust cycles, such as in the late 1980s and early 1990s, Clayton-Matthews said home affordability would have to be more in line with the rest of the country for the market to pick up. The median single-family home price in Massachusetts was about 8.5 times the state's per capita income, he said. For the rest of the country, the median price is about 6.5 times per capita income.

As another indicator that the state hasn't reached the bottom of the slump, ''We're also seeing the inventory of homes on the market still increasing,'' Clayton-Matthews said. ''That suggests prices aren't done adjusting.''

The November registry statistics come on the heels of a report by The Warren Group, publisher of Banker & Tradesman, showing that single-family home sales fell in the first 10 months of the year. Statewide, sales fell by 15.13 percent when compared with the same period in 2005, and on the Cape they fell 21.82 percent.

Meanwhile, the median sale price for single-family homes during that period fell by 4.38 percent statewide and by 1.97 percent on the Cape.

As of November, the year-to-date median sale price for all properties on the Cape was $367,000 compared with $365,000 during the same period last year, according to the registry data.

''The million-dollar plus sales are the ones keeping the median price where it is, which is relatively flat,'' Meade said.

Published by Cape Cod Times - Christie Smythe

Published: December 2, 2006)

And while some real estate professionals bemoan the slump, for buyers and creative real estate agents, the future is bright.

''There's no question in that it's down,'' Jack Cotton, Cape Cod brokerage manager for Sotheby's International Realty, said of the latest sales statistics released Wednesday.

In October, residential property sales were down by 28.7 percent when compared with the same month last year and condo sales dropped by 53 percent, according to data from the Cape Cod & Islands Association of Realtors. The group tracks only sales of properties sold through the Multiple Listing Service.

For condominiums, it was the most precipitous drop from last year's figures in 10 months.

Meanwhile, the average home sale price was $531,062, down $66,000, or 11 percent, from October 2005.

The average number of days residential properties were on the market before being sold jumped 11 percent from 113 in October 2005 to 134.

The numbers are in keeping with a national trend.

For the first nine months of the year, sales of existing homes were down 14 percent across the country and condo sales were down 10 percent, according to the National Association of Realtors. In the Northeast, sales of existing homes were off 13 percent in that time and condo sales were off 17 percent.

Until the past year or so, the Cape and Islands market had been steaming ahead at a red-hot pace.

While local real estate agents aren't jumping for joy about the shift, they aren't leaping out of tall buildings, either.

There is no obvious reason for the recent downturn in sales, and that's a good sign that it's no more than the mind-set of buyers, Cotton said.

''This is an unbelievable opportunity for buyers,'' he said. ''By spring, you'll see a dramatic shift.''

With unemployment below 5 percent and a recent drop in housing inventory on Cape Cod, market forces should kick back in soon, Cotton said.

In the meantime, real estate agents are getting creative to encourage buyers.

Bayview Real Estate owner Jean Schiffmann said this is a new experience for her.

''I've never seen buyers on the fence as much as I do now,'' said Schiffmann, who has owned the Barnstable agency since 1985. ''It's still a great market for buyers, mortgage rates are great and the economy is not that bad.''

Schiffmann said she believes there's a lot of apathy right now, spurred by news of the shifting market, the war and the high cost of homes on Cape Cod.

Buyers will likely get off the fence as housing prices correct, she said. ''I just think you have to do some extra things to sell the properties.''

To that end, her agency is co-hosting a unique home tour Sunday afternoon with Sovereign Bank, with the hopes of attracting prospective buyers.

The tour of six antique Barnstable homes includes food ranging from sushi to clam chowder, wine tasting, a raffle, a trivia contest and a fundraiser for the local hospice. Four sellers participating in the event have also agreed to reduce their asking price for one week as an added draw, she said.

''From our standpoint, it's great for our clients,'' said broker Edward McKenna of Buyer Brokers of Cape Cod, Berard Associates, a group that represents home buyers.

The softening market and increased incentives mean opportunities for home buyers who have been priced out of the market until now, McKenna said.

''Cape Cod is on sale right now,'' he said.

Patrick Cassidy can be reached at pcassidy@capecodonline.com.

(Published: November 17, 2006) Cape Cod Times

I recently had dinner with a friend of mine on Cape Cod. Whenever I visit, my main goal for the week is to make sure she sees the ocean. Because frequently she doesn't see it between my visits ... and sometimes I visit only a few times a year.

When I'm here we eat in restaurants overlooking the water, walk my dog on the beach, ride the bike path that runs along the shore. Whatever the season. Because Cape Cod is beautiful in every season of the year.

But many people who live on Cape Cod year round miss this - all of it. Go months without seeing their coast, or even thinking of it. My friend isn't alone; I hear the same thing from a lot of people who live on the Cape. They don't see the beach from month to month. Don't hike the silent, pine-needle-carpeted trails through the woods. Don't ride on the extensive bike paths that curve along the shore.

But they are invariably grateful when visitors drag them to the beauties of their own towns - often only minutes from their homes.

When I was living in Baltimore and traveling for work, I pondered, on a monthly basis, ways to make high-tech marketing pay on Cape Cod (long before telecommuting). Sometimes I flew through Boston. Two hours to kill at Logan before reboarding for Chicago, Dallas, Houston. Every time I was there, it seemed I heard the Hyannis flight called. You know the one. It takes off every hour, or half-hour, depending on time of day and year. You go down the secret stairs and walk out on the tarmac to climb into the plane under the open sky.

Sometimes I could hardly bear not getting on that plane. Once, I almost did - almost missed stage-managing an international conference for 2,000 people.

Now, it's a little different.

Now, it's OK that I don't live on Cape Cod.

Because when I go to Cape Cod, I love every minute of it. I thrive on the sun, the rain, the fog. I recharge my soul with gray-shingled houses on sandy beaches with seaweed-lined high-water marks. My heart is touched by eelgrass, burrs, salt marshes, sand in my car, sand in my bag, and often sand in my bed.

Maybe it's absence making the heart grow fonder. Maybe familiarity really does breed contempt. Maybe if I lived there I'd be one of the exceptions, enjoying every bit of the island's beauties to the utmost. Or maybe I wouldn't. Either way, I wouldn't trade my part-time primitive joy ... for any full-time mild appreciation ... ever.

So here's to all the people who live surrounded by Cape Cod beauty. I hope you're not waiting for your visitors. I hope you're reading this sitting on a dock with your back propped against a piling ... or on a boat off the coast ... or stretched out on a sandy beach.

And really, I hope you have sand in your bed tonight.

By BARBARA GAIL WARDEN
Cape Cod Times
(Published: September 21, 2006)

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Prices should bounce higher in a few months, said David Lereah, chief economist for the real estate group ''as the market works through a build in housing inventory.''

Median existing-home sales prices should rise about 2.8 percent this year and 2.2 percent next year, the group said in its monthly economic outlook. Median new-home prices are expected to rise 0.2 percent in 2006 and 2.4 percent in 2007.

After adjusting for inflation, median home prices would be lower at the end of 2007 than they are now, the group projects.

Existing-home prices have risen at an average of 9.6 percent annually in the past four years, well ahead of the inflation rate. New-home prices rose 13.3 percent in 2004 and 9 percent in 2005.

''This year sales are slowing, homes are plentiful and sellers are negotiating,'' Lereah said. ''Under these conditions, we'll probably see prices dip temporarily below year-ago levels as the market works through a build-up in housing inventory.''

Twenty-five of 48 economists surveyed in the Wall Street Journal's monthly survey said they expect little or no growth in the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight's home price index in 2007, the newspaper reported yesterday in its online edition.

(Published: September 8, 2006)

Source: Cape Cod Times

The registry statistics include all recorded real estate sales of property valued at more than $50,000. Because of the amount of time involved in closing real estate sales, numbers for August actually indicate activity in July.

Register of Deeds John Meade said the drop in sales and prices in the August statistics was expected given the direction of the market and because summer is historically a slower period for real estate than spring or fall.

''July tends to be a quiet month for real estate activity. Everyone's at the beach,'' Meade said.

But he added that the market does appear to be pulling back from ''the incredibly hot level of activity that marked the beginning of the 2000s.''

''My guess is we're going to see things start to pick up as the year ends,'' he said.

So far this year, according to the registry's numbers, March showed the most resilience with sales dropping only 8.7 percent compared with the same month last year. The median price also posted a slight gain at $354,900 compared with $352,500 in March 2005.

In July, the median sale price held fairly steady at $365,000 compared with $365,371 in the same month last year, but the number of sales dropped by a steep 31.4 percent.

August statistics from the Cape Cod & Islands Association of Realtors will not be released until later this month. But according to July statistics from the Realtors, which track sales listed with the Cape Cod & Islands Multiple Listing Service, single-family home sales were down nearly 30 percent that month compared with July 2005. The average sale value for the month was off by 6.9 percent at $499,498 compared with $536,628 last July.

Meade said he does not expect that the real estate slowdown will be permanent.''My expectation is that barring a huge increase in interest rates, or some other economic calamity, things will start moving along pretty good here.''

Source: Cape Cod Times by Staff Writer, Christie Smythe